Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine were still front and center, driving safe-haven assets higher for yet another day.
Bitcoin struck fresh record highs yet again, partly driven by increased ETF interest, while gold also found itself in positive territory.
Here are the latest updates that drove price action and how financial markets fared.
Headlines:
- New Zealand credit card spending recovered 0.3% y/y in Oct vs. previous 3.1% slump
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda discussed the need to incorporate new U.S. administration policies into Japan’s economic outlook but refrained to comment on short-term FX movements.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that they launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, named Oreshnik, targeting the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro
- U.S. authorized Ukraine to use Army Tactical Missile Systems and British Storm Shadow missiles, marking a significant escalation in Western military support for Ukraine
- U.S. initial jobless claims at 213K for week ending Nov. 14 (220K forecast, 219K previous)
- U.S. Philly Fed index in Nov: -5.5 (+7.4 forecast, +10.3 previous)
- International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, for alleged war crimes in Gaza
- BOE MPC member Mann suggested keeping rates on hold rather than pursuing gradual easing
- U.K. GfK consumer confidence in Nov: -18 (-21 expected & previous)
- FOMC member Hammack noted that inflation is easing but not yet at target, urging focus on data-dependent approach
- FOMC member Goolsbee anticipates rates moving “a fair bit lower” over next year since inflation can be managed without risking job losses
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Risk aversion was evident for the most part of the day, as market participants sought safe-havens like gold and bonds, driving the precious metal up by 0.73% for the day and weighing on Treasury yields early on.
WTI crude oil prices were also elevated, as news of Russia launching an experimental missile and the U.S. authorizing additional Western military support for Ukraine spurred production concerns for the OPEC+ member nation. ICC arrest warrants for Israeli leaders for alleged war crimes in Gaza also kept investors wary of further tensions in the Middle East, adding to global oil supply jitters.
U.S. stock traders shrugged off these risk-off vibes, as a rally in small cap stocks helped lift indices back in positive territory. The Dow closed 1.06% in the green while the S&P 500 index ended roughly 0.6% higher.
Treasury yields also managed a recovery during the New York session, likely driven by net positive U.S. economic data and remarks from FOMC member Hammack who emphasized the need for data-dependent policy decisions.
Bitcoin held on to its gains as it made fresh record highs close to the key $100K barrier, still driven by optimism for favorable crypto regulation and ETF trading volumes.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
The Greenback cruised lower early in the day, with additional losses for USD/JPY right around Governor Ueda’s speech when he talked about how their December meeting is still a “live” one, keeping hopes alive for a potential rate hike.
The safe-haven U.S. currency started to cruise higher against majority of its peers leading up to the London session, as safe-haven flows picked up on escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, except against the lower-yielding Japanese yen.
AUD and CAD showed resilience, moving mostly sideways against the dollar, even as the U.S. currency staged another broad rally during the New York session. Economic data points were mostly upbeat, with initial jobless claims beating estimates and existing home sales showing an uptick, although the Philly Fed index fell short of estimates.
FOMC rhetoric also seemed mixed, as Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack emphasized the need for a gradual approach to easing while Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee hinted that interest rates could be much lower than expected next year.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- U.K. retail sales at 7:00 am GMT
- French flash manufacturing and services PMI at 8:15 am GMT
- German flash manufacturing and services PMI at 8:30 am GMT
- ECB President Lagarde’s speech at 8:30 am GMT
- Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMI at 9:00 am GMT
- U.K. flash manufacturing and services PMI at 9:30 am GMT
- SNB President Schlegel’s testimony at 12:40 pm GMT
- German Buba President Nagel’s speech at 1:00 pm GMT
- Canada’s headline and core retail sales at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMI at 2:45 pm GMT
- U.S. UoM revised consumer sentiment index at 3:00 pm GMT
The spotlight could shift back to fundamentals today, as global flash PMI readings are due from the major economies. The eurozone PMI readings are likely to spark additional volatility for the shared currency since traders are keen to find out whether or not the ECB will push through with another rate cut soon.
Keep an eye out for PMI data from the U.K. and U.S. economies also, as these could shape monetary policy expectations for the BOE and Fed.
