It’s NFP Friday, people!
Will Uncle Sam’s official jobs report seal the deal for a Fed pivot and this USD/CHF triangle breakdown?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out EUR/USD’s ascending triangle ahead of the core PCE price index and ISM manufacturing PMI. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. Oct core PCE price index slowed from 0.5% to 0.2% vs. 0.3% m/m forecast
U.S. Challenger job cuts jumped 416.5% y/y in Nov
U.S. personal income advanced from 0.4% to 0.7% m/m in Oct
U.S. Nov ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 50.2 to 49.0 vs. 49.7 forecast
New Zealand Q3 overseas trade index declined by 3.4% q/q vs. projected 0.4% uptick
RBA Gov Lowe: Inflation expectations are still well-anchored
BOJ Gov Kuroda: Inflation rates around the world expected to slow gradually
Asian markets subdued ahead of U.S. NFP release
U.S. NFP report at 1:30 pm GMT
Canadian employment change at 1:30 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
What to Watch: USD/CHF
Don’t look now, but USD/CHF already seems to be breaking out of its triangle pattern!
Could dollar traders be THAT excited to place their bets ahead of the NFP?
Well, you can’t really blame the bears for coming out early, as leading indicators have mostly been pointing to a slowdown in hiring.
So far this week, the ADP non-farm employment change figure, Challenger job cuts report, and ISM manufacturing PMI all turned out weaker than expected.
Many point to the layoffs in the tech sector (Looking at you, Elon Musk!) as the likely culprit for the drop in employment for the month. If the actual figure falls short of the 200K estimate, USD/CHF might carry on with its breakdown.
The descending triangle formation spans around 250 pips in height, so the resulting selloff could be of the same size. Technical indicators are giving mixed signals, though.
While the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to confirm the presence of bearish vibes, Stochastic is turning higher to hint that buyers might still put up a fight.
Better look out for an upside NFP surprise if you’re hoping to catch a bounce back to the .9500 mark!
